Key facts
- Middle East trade has contracted sharply due to the Iran war.
- WTO forecasts a 17% drop in exports and 15% drop in imports this year.
- Intra-African trade accounts for about 20% of African trade.
- Global merchandise trade volume growth is projected to reach 3.9% in 2026.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, director general of the World Trade Organization, told Reuters on Thursday that shifting geopolitics and ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East will have a lasting impact on global trade flows. She noted that trade in the Middle East has contracted sharply due to the Iran war, and that companies are diversifying trade routes to hedge against future shocks. The WTO forecasts a 17% drop in exports and a 15% drop in imports this year. Okonjo-Iweala said that some alternative trade routes would likely endure because countries and businesses want to hedge against eventualities. She also noted that supply chains have been reconfiguring and that regional trade, particularly intra-African trade, is expected to expand. The WTO has upgraded its forecast for global merchandise trade growth to 3.9% in 2026, partly due to demand for AI-related products.