Key facts
- The White House is considering tariffs on refined copper products.
- Officials are concerned that tariffs could raise manufacturing costs.
- The administration is also focused on affordability ahead of the November midterm elections.
- Copper prices have surged to record highs amid expectations of new duties.
- The U.S. imports roughly half of its copper needs and has two operational copper smelters.
- A Rio executive previously stated that existing tariffs do little to offset U.S. smelter economics.
The White House has not yet finalized a decision on imposing tariffs on refined copper products, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Officials are balancing concerns that higher copper prices could increase manufacturing costs against the potential benefits of encouraging domestic mining and production. The administration's focus on affordability ahead of the November midterm elections is a key factor in the delay.
Copper prices have reached record highs, fueled by market expectations that President Donald Trump would implement tariffs on refined copper and concentrate. This anticipation has led traders and industrial buyers to increase U.S. inventories. The administration is considering these tariffs as part of a broader strategy to boost U.S. manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign critical materials.
Copper is a vital component in industries such as construction, transportation, and electronics. S&P Global forecasts a 50% increase in global copper demand by 2040, driven by growth in the AI and defense sectors. The U.S. currently imports about half of its copper needs and operates only two copper smelters, owned by Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto. Proposed tariffs could improve the economics of domestic mining and smelting projects, as indicated by a Rio executive who noted that current mechanisms do not sufficiently offset U.S. smelter costs.
However, broader tariffs could increase expenses for manufacturers reliant on copper, including those in the electrical equipment, automotive, and construction sectors. This tension complicates the administration's goal of promoting domestic production without exacerbating inflation or undermining President Trump's message on lowering living costs. The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariff policy is also impacting global copper supply by discouraging the return of metal to international markets, according to Jacob White, a minerals analyst at Sprott Asset Management.
In July 2025, Trump imposed levies on semi-finished copper products but stopped short of a blanket tariff on all copper-containing items, a move that disappointed copper mining companies. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was tasked with recommending whether to impose a 15% tariff starting January 1, 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. U.S. refined copper imports have significantly increased since 2015, while domestic production has declined. The U.S. also has substantial domestic copper reserves and has moved to ban electronic waste exports, which contain copper.