Key facts
- Venezuela's oil comeback could cost more than $100 billion in investment.
- NABEP was granted 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields with 65 billion barrels of reserves.
- NABEP aims to increase production to over 1 million barrels per day.
- Rystad Energy projects Venezuela's oil production to reach 2.58 million bpd by 2035.
- Venezuela's current oil production is about 1.25 million bpd.
- Chevron has doubled its production in Venezuela to about 600,000 bpd.
The Trump administration is promoting a significant restructuring of Venezuela's oil sector, aiming to revive its production capacity and increase exports, particularly to the United States. This initiative has led to the ousting of Russian and Chinese companies from previously awarded concessions and has spurred new deals with international oil majors, service providers, and emerging companies.
One of the most significant agreements is with privately held North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP), which the White House described as "the biggest oil deal in world history." This deal could involve up to $100 billion in investment over the long term for new oil infrastructure. NABEP has been granted 100-year concessions for 17 oil fields with estimated reserves of approximately 65 billion barrels. The company, led by Venezuelan businessman Alejandro Betancourt, intends to rapidly expand operations in Lake Maracaibo and the Orinoco Belt with a near-term goal of producing over 1 million barrels of oil per day.
However, intelligence firm Rystad Energy noted that the $100 billion figure represents a long-term funding requirement, not committed capital, and NABEP has not disclosed a detailed financing structure. Rystad Energy favors investment programs tied to established operators and defined assets over more ambitious plans requiring substantial external capital.
Venezuela's current oil production stands at approximately 1.25 million barrels per day. Rystad Energy projects this figure to rise to around 1.6 million bpd by 2028 and 1.8 million bpd by 2030, potentially jumping to 2.58 million bpd by 2035 as new developments complement existing growth. Reaching these production levels would require a significant increase in drilling activity, from the current two active rigs to around 50 by 2028 and nearly 80 by 2030.
Legacy producers and service providers have accelerated deal-making, encouraged by the geopolitical shift. Chevron has committed over $7 billion in investment over the next five years and has already doubled its Venezuelan production to approximately 600,000 bpd. Continental Resources has signed a memorandum of understanding with state oil firm PDVSA to operate the Ayacucho 2 Block, which holds an estimated 30 billion barrels of resource in place. Italy's Eni has also signed a strategic contract to operate the Junín-5 oil field, a heavy oil field with 35 billion barrels of certified oil in place. Oilfield services giants Halliburton and SLB have also entered into agreements to pursue development opportunities and activate rigs in Venezuela.
Rystad Energy stated that the pace of Venezuela's oil production recovery will depend on actual capital deployment and the country's capacity to rebuild drilling, services, and infrastructure.