US pending home sales fall, but market weakness is uneven

Pending home sales nationally declined for the week ending September 25, signaling a potential weakening in housing demand. New pending sales fell 4.8% from the prior week and 9% from a year ago, reaching 59,316. Additionally, 42.5% of active listings had seen a price cut, an increase from 41.6% a year prior. Active inventory rose 3.8% year over year to 895,398 homes, with the median days on market holding steady at 70 days.

However, the national trend is not uniform across all markets. Provo-Orem, Utah, is experiencing a clear signal of weakening demand, with pending sales down 31.5% year over year and the total pending pool down 14.5%. New listings in Provo remained nearly unchanged, indicating that the slowdown is due to fewer homes going under contract rather than a surge in supply. Sellers in Provo are adjusting, with nearly half of active inventory taking a price cut and the median list price declining 2.4% year over year.

Nashville, Tennessee, shows a market further into adjustment, with new pending sales down 27.7% year over year and active inventory up 9.1%. In contrast, nearby Knoxville, Tennessee, is seeing different trends, with new pending sales up 4.1% year over year and median days on market falling.

Dallas-Fort Worth, a large market with over 30,000 active listings, saw new pending sales fall 15.5% year over year, with the broader pending pool 10% smaller. However, new listings were similar to last year, and active inventory was actually lower, suggesting the slowdown is not driven by supply conditions.

Minneapolis is highlighted as a market to watch, with active inventory up 21.9% year over year while new listings are below last year's pace. New pending sales are down 16.5% year over year, the share of listings with price cuts has increased significantly, and median days on market has risen.

Jacksonville, Florida, presents another contrast, with new pending sales down only 2.7% year over year and active inventory lower. The share of listings with price cuts has fallen, and median days on market has improved.