Key facts
- Deloitte forecasts U.S. holiday retail sales to grow 4% to 4.8% between November 2026 and January 2027.
- This represents an acceleration from the 4.1% growth seen in the same period a year earlier.
- Total holiday sales are estimated to reach $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion, up from $1.63 trillion a year ago.
- Disposable personal income, a key indicator for retail demand, is expected to rise 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season.
- E-commerce sales are predicted to increase 7.5% to 8.4%, reaching $316.1 billion to $318.9 billion.
U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to grow between 4% and 4.8% this year, an acceleration from the 4.1% growth recorded in the same period a year earlier, according to a report by Deloitte released on Thursday. The consultancy cited data from agencies including the U.S. Commerce Department and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This projected growth translates to total holiday sales ranging from $1.70 trillion to $1.71 trillion, an increase from the $1.63 trillion reported in the prior year, excluding sales from gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers.
Deloitte's forecast for disposable personal income, a key indicator for retail and e-commerce demand, anticipates a rise of 4.5% to 5.2% during the holiday season. Natalie Martini, vice chair at Deloitte, noted that consumers are prioritizing making the holidays special for loved ones while being mindful of their spending.
Martini also observed that shoppers across all income levels are actively seeking deals, switching brands, and comparing prices across different retailers to maximize their budgets. E-commerce sales are anticipated to see a significant increase of 7.5% to 8.4%, reaching between $316.1 billion and $318.9 billion, compared to a 7.5% growth to an estimated $294 billion in the previous year's holiday period.