All NewsEducationTV
Equities & FundsCrypto & Digital AssetsAI & TechnologyBusiness & CorporateUS Politics & PolicyGeopolitics & Global RiskMacro, Rates & FXCommodities & EnergyEuropean Politics & MarketsAsia-PacificReal Estate & Property
All NewsHome
← Back to Macro, Rates & FX

UK inflation rises to 2.9%, signaling cost of living challenge

Created at 19 Aug · 8:56 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

UK inflation climbed to 2.9% in July, driven by rising energy bills, signaling a significant cost of living challenge for consumers and the government. Core inflation remained stable, but further price pressures are anticipated.

Key Numbers

2.9%UK inflation rate in July
2.6%UK core inflation rate in July
1.3%Annual food price increase in July
5.05%10-year UK government bond yield
10 weeksTime until Chancellor Healey's first budget

Who's Involved

Andy Burnham
Prime Minister facing cost of living challenge
Donald Trump
Hailed memorandum of understanding with Iran
Liliana Danila
Chief Economist of the Food and Drink Federation
Paul Nowak
TUC General Secretary calling for government action
John Healey
New Chancellor weighing energy support and borrowing costs
JP Morgan
Leading financial sector lobbying against windfall tax

↳ Why This Matters

The rise in UK inflation underscores the significant economic challenges facing the Burnham government, impacting household budgets and increasing government borrowing costs. The situation will test the government's ability to provide effective support while managing public finances.

Key facts

  • UK inflation increased to 2.9% in July, primarily due to higher energy bills.
  • Core inflation held steady at 2.6%, with wage growth slowing.
  • Fuel prices have seen a recent uptick after an earlier decrease.
  • 10-year UK government bond yields have risen to 5.05%.
  • Chancellor John Healey must consider increased borrowing costs for government support.

UK inflation rose to 2.9% in July, primarily driven by an increase in energy bills, signaling a significant challenge for Prime Minister Andy Burnham in managing the cost of living crisis. While fuel prices saw a temporary dip due to easing Middle East tensions, they have since risen again. Food prices have remained relatively stable but are expected to increase due to summer heatwaves and drought.

Despite the headline inflation figure, core inflation remained unchanged at 2.6%, and slowing wage growth suggests that broader inflationary pressures are not yet embedded in the economy. However, weak pay growth means consumers are feeling the full impact of rising prices, increasing calls for government intervention.

Chancellor John Healey faces a difficult balancing act as he considers energy support measures, with rising inflation contributing to higher borrowing costs. The yield on 10-year UK government bonds has surged to 5.05%, which could increase the Treasury's interest bill. The TUC has proposed a windfall tax on banks to fund energy support, a move the financial sector, including JP Morgan, is actively lobbying against.

Frequently asked questions

The primary driver was an increase in energy bills due to a rise in Ofgem's quarterly price cap. Cheaper fuel prices initially offset this but have since risen again.

Food prices are expected to increase due to extreme heat and drought over the summer, coupled with ongoing supply chain disruptions and geopolitical volatility.

There is little in the latest data to concern the Bank of England yet, as core inflation is stable and wage growth is slowing, suggesting interest rates may not need to be raised immediately.

Rising inflation contributes to a sell-off in government bonds, driving up yields. This increases borrowing costs for the government, potentially raising the Treasury's interest bill.

What Happens Next

01Further increases in energy price caps are expected in October.
02Chancellor John Healey will present his first budget in approximately 10 weeks.
CME Headlines
  • 10-Year note yields retreat from year-to-date highs ahead of FOMC minutes.
    18 Aug · 8:37 PM
  • 10-Year note yields retreat from year-to-date highs ahead of FOMC minutes.
    18 Aug · 8:37 PM
  • Australian Dollar futures pull back from 2.5-month high as commodities decline.
    18 Aug · 7:49 PM

How It Developed

UK inflation rose to 2.9% in July, up from 2.6% in June.
Rising energy bills were the primary driver of the inflation increase.
Cheaper fuel prices partially offset the rise, influenced by Middle East hostilities easing.
Fuel prices have since increased again as conflict hopes faded.
Core inflation remained unchanged at 2.6%.
Wage growth is slowing, indicating a lack of second-round inflation effects.
year UK government bond yields reached 5.05% amid a global bond sell-off.
Chancellor John Healey faces higher borrowing costs when considering energy support packages.

Sources

T1
Rising inflation underlines scale of Andy Burnham’s cost of living challengeThe Guardian

Related Stories

UK inflation hits 2.9% in July, raising concerns for cost of living measures
19 Aug · 6:16 AM
UK inflation hits 2.9% as Middle East conflict impacts energy prices
19 Aug · 6:11 AM
Energy Prices Expected to Lower July Inflation Data
18 Aug · 1:46 PM
US Inflation Eased to 3.4% in July, but Elevated Prices Persist Amid Iran Conflict
18 Aug · 7:06 PM
RBA Deputy Governor Hauser Warns of Potential Rate Hike
19 Aug · 2:59 AM