Key facts
- Turkey is likely to refrain from a strong response to Israeli strikes in Syria until after Israel's October general election.
- Ankara views the recent Israeli strikes on the Abu al-Duhur airbase as a violation of previous understandings.
- Turkish officials believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is escalating tensions to gain an electoral advantage.
- The US State Department removed Syria from its list of state sponsors of terrorism and revoked the designation of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).
- The Syrian Democratic Forces announced full integration into the Damascus government.
Turkey is exercising restraint regarding Israeli strikes on Syria, anticipating a change in Israeli government following the October general election. Officials in Ankara view the recent Israeli attacks on the Abu al-Duhur military airbase, located approximately 70km from the Turkish border, as provocative but not entirely surprising. They believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is seeking to escalate tensions to bolster his struggling election campaign.
A Turkish official stated that Israel has previously struck other bases in Syria, and this particular incident is not uniquely significant. However, the decision not to use the established government hotline between Turkey and Israel during these strikes is considered particularly dangerous. Furthermore, Israel's actions are seen as a violation of understandings reached during talks in Baku last year, where a dividing line in Syria was agreed upon to manage security zones and air corridors for potential strikes on Iran.
Ankara asserts it has not attempted to deploy forces to the Abu al-Duhur airbase, a position reportedly supported by Syrian and US officials. This leads Turkey to view the Israeli strikes as a breach of the prior agreement. Several Turkish officials expressed that they no longer consider the current Israeli government a rational actor, contrasting it with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's perceived rational and restrained approach to regional issues. Erdogan himself has avoided direct confrontation, referring to those seeking political gains through such actions as 'murderous networks' while reiterating Turkey's commitment to peace and its allies.
Turkey's cautious response is also influenced by the deteriorating relationship between Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump. Turkey has aligned its strategy with Washington's lead, noting the importance of its close ties with US special envoy Thomas Barrack. This alignment has reportedly helped Ankara overcome Israeli objections concerning Syria. Notably, the US State Department removed Syria from its list of state sponsors of terrorism after 47 years and revoked the designation of Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Additionally, the commander-in-chief of the Syrian Democratic Forces announced the full integration of his forces into the Damascus government, a development seen as a victory for Turkey's long-term strategy in Syria, which prioritizes a stable and sovereign country.