Key facts
- Turkey's commitments under the Mecca defense pact with Saudi Arabia could lead to a confrontation with Yemen's Houthis.
- The pact, which includes Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, is expected to be ratified in October.
- Experts warn that Houthi control of Bab al-Mandeb could disrupt Turkish supply lines to Somalia, impacting its embassy, military base, and oil exploration activities.
- A senior Houthi official warned Turkey and Pakistan against intervening in support of Saudi Arabia.
- Turkey is reportedly preparing to provide defensive military equipment, air-defense systems, and drones to Saudi Arabia.
- The assistance could involve deploying aircraft, operators, and technical personnel after the Mecca pact's ratification.
Turkey's potential involvement in a Saudi-led defence pact could draw it into a confrontation with Yemen's Houthi rebels, potentially disrupting vital supply lines to the Horn of Africa. The Mecca defence pact, which brings together Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan, is expected to be ratified in October.
While regional experts suggest Ankara does not desire a clash with the Houthis, its participation in the Saudi-led Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance makes some form of confrontation possible. A Turkish official confirmed that Riyadh has not formally requested assistance under the pact.
Experts highlight that Turkey has significant interests to protect, including military, commercial, and energy supply lines through the Red Sea. Ebuzer Demirci, a researcher at the University of Toronto Scarborough, noted that the Bab al-Mandeb strait, largely controlled by the Houthis, is a crucial gateway for Turkish trade with China, India, and East Africa. Any disruption would increase trade costs and transit times, particularly affecting Turkey's direct line to Mogadishu, Somalia, where it has an embassy, a military training base, and offshore oil exploration activities.
Senior Ansar Allah official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti has warned Turkey and Pakistan against intervening in support of Saudi Arabia, stating it would carry a "heavy price." Betul Dogan-Akkas, an assistant professor at Ankara University, suggested that Turkey might leverage its diplomatic channels and its sizeable Yemeni diaspora to help de-escalate tensions rather than engage in direct military action. Muhammed Huseyin Mercan, a fellow at the Seta think tank, agreed that military intervention would create complications beyond the Red Sea, potentially straining relations with Baghdad and hindering peace efforts concerning the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
However, regional officials familiar with discussions indicated that Turkey is preparing to provide defensive assistance, such as military equipment, air-defence systems, and drones, to Saudi Arabia, while avoiding direct intervention. This assistance could involve deploying aircraft, operators, and technical personnel after the Mecca pact's ratification. Yasmeen al-Eryani, from the Yemeni think tank Sana’a Center, suggested that Turkey could also play a political role as an intermediary to mitigate the conflict's impact.