Key facts
- Achieving 100% US production of 10 common tech products by 2031 would cost $185-$230 billion in capital expenditure.
- The goal would require 555,000-668,000 additional full-time employees, more than doubling the current workforce.
- Annual electricity demand for this reshoring effort would be 19.1-19.5 billion kilowatt-hours.
- Manufacturing a smartphone entirely in the US could increase its cost by 152%, according to CTA estimates.
- The weighted average price increase for 10 products could be 27% to 55% if companies pass on costs.
- Reshoring only assembly, not all components, would cost $16-$19 billion and increase smartphone costs by 67%.
The Consumer Technology Association (CTA) has estimated the significant financial and labor costs associated with President Donald Trump's ambitious goal of producing all high-demand technologies entirely within the United States. Trump's "Genesis Mission," launched via executive order in December, aims to leverage US dominance in AI to maintain an edge in advanced robotics, biotechnology, semiconductors, and nuclear technologies, emphasizing self-sustaining supply chains.
The CTA's research indicates that achieving full US production for 10 categories of products commonly found in homes by 2031 would necessitate between $185 billion and $230 billion in capital expenditure. This would also require an additional 555,000 to 668,000 full-time employees, a demand that more than doubles the existing US computer and electronics manufacturing workforce. Furthermore, the plan would consume an estimated 19.1 to 19.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity annually, potentially conflicting with the energy needs of AI data centers.
Smartphones emerged as the most expensive product to manufacture domestically, with an estimated cost increase of 152% due to tariffs and production costs. Laptops could cost 93% more, and smartwatches 97% more, while televisions might see a 41% increase. The CTA projects that companies could pass on 25% to 50% of these cost increases to consumers, resulting in a weighted average price increase of 27% to 55% for the 10 products.
As an alternative, the CTA proposed focusing solely on reshoring the assembly process, which would cost an estimated $16 billion to $19 billion. This approach would still increase smartphone manufacturing costs by 67% but would allow companies to continue working with trusted international suppliers for components. The CTA also suggested that Trump reconsider tariffs on component parts from allied nations.
CTA's executive chair, Gary Shapiro, stated that reshoring over 50% of semiconductor manufacturing within two years, as demanded by Trump, is "physically impossible" and "labor-wise impossible." The association noted that Apple, a member company, has faced pressure from Trump to manufacture iPhones in the US, a move analysts predict could significantly increase the device's price and potentially impact sales.