Key facts
- President Donald Trump proposed a $5,000 payment to every adult U.S. citizen if Republicans win the November midterm elections.
- The total cost of the proposed payments would be approximately $1.2 trillion.
- Vice President JD Vance suggested the U.S. government could fund the payments using tariff revenue.
- The U.S. has collected an estimated $167 billion in tariff revenue in the current fiscal year.
- The U.S. Supreme Court has previously ruled that similar promises are legal.
- Congress has the constitutional authority over government spending.
President Donald Trump proposed on Wednesday a $5,000 "Trump dividend" payment to all adult U.S. citizens if Republicans retain control of the House of Representatives and the Senate in the November 3 midterm elections. The pledge, which would cost an estimated $1.2 trillion, has raised questions about its legality and funding.
Trump stated the checks would go to about 240 million people, according to the U.S. Census. Vice President JD Vance suggested on Fox News that the U.S. government could draw on tariff revenue, which has been increased by Trump's trade policies. However, the Congressional Budget Office estimates the government has taken in $167 billion so far in the current fiscal year, which is not nearly enough to cover the proposed giveaway. The payments would instead widen the government's budget gap.
While candidates regularly promise benefits in return for votes, the legality of such promises can be challenged. The U.S. Supreme Court has ruled that comparable promises are legal, as seen in a 1982 decision. It would likely be difficult to challenge Trump's dividend in court, as voters might have trouble showing they were directly harmed. However, Elon Musk's similar offer of a chance to win $1 million for signing a petition drew legal challenges.
Passage of the payments would require Congressional approval, as Congress has authority over spending under the U.S. Constitution. Republicans control both the House and the Senate by narrow margins, and some members have reacted favorably. Democrats would likely oppose such legislation and could block passage in the Senate, where a supermajority of 60 votes is needed to advance most legislation. Republicans could potentially use a budget process to bypass Democrats and approve the bill along party lines, but they have limited time before the November elections.
The U.S. government has previously provided direct payments to citizens, notably three separate payments in March 2020, December 2020, and March 2021 as part of COVID-19 relief packages. These payments, up to $1,200, $600, and $1,400 per adult respectively, were phased out for higher-income individuals and totaled $814 billion. Numerous logistical problems, including fraud and payments to deceased individuals, were reported.
Economic studies suggest that the pandemic-era stimulus checks contributed to subsequent inflation by boosting consumer demand and also boosted the stock market. Trump's proposed dividend, if funded through borrowing, could negatively impact bond markets, potentially driving bond prices lower and yields higher. Yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds ticked up to 4.91% on Thursday as investors assessed the proposal.
Trump has made similar promises in the past, including a $2,000 dividend in November 2025 tied to tariff revenue, and a one-time "warrior dividend" payment of $1,776 to military members in December 2025. His White House also stated that nearly 1 million Americans will receive $500 payments to account for excess fees charged for Affordable Care Act health insurance.