Thornton on managing US-China competition and averting crises

Participants in the U.S.-China Track II meeting agreed that while competition is inevitable, stabilization is the most achievable near-term goal. They recognized that an unmanaged rivalry poses significant geopolitical, economic, and military risks. The report highlighted economic security, particularly concerning trade and technology viewed through a national security lens, as a key area of competition.

While Taiwan remains a critical flashpoint, experts do not anticipate an immediate confrontation. The report stressed the importance of expanding military-to-military communication and crisis-management mechanisms to prevent miscommunication and escalation. Areas identified for potential cooperation include the significant economic relationship, AI safety, and fentanyl enforcement.