Key facts
- SpaceX stock fell 3.11% to $138.88 on August 20.
- Around 319 million shares became available for sale.
- The company's Q2 2026 revenue increased by 92% year-over-year.
- AI revenue for SpaceX surged by 247% in Q2 2026.
- Analyst Glenn Thum has a price target of $75 for SpaceX stock.
- The average 12-month price target from 31 analysts is $232.35.
SpaceX stock experienced a notable decline on August 20, influenced by a significant share unlock and ongoing market pressures on high-growth technology stocks. Approximately 319 million shares became eligible for sale, a development that has historically led to insider profit-taking and an expansion of the stock's available trading float.
The company's stock, trading under the ticker SPCX, was valued at $130.99 as of 11:41 a.m. ET on August 20, down from its previous close. This followed a broader market selloff that has affected newly public companies with premium valuations tied to long-term growth expectations.
Broader macroeconomic factors, including escalating geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation concerns, and rising energy costs, have contributed to a market-wide shift toward more defensive positioning, impacting high-beta growth stocks like SpaceX. Additionally, new U.S. tariffs on imports have introduced further macroeconomic risk for globally exposed companies.
Despite the recent volatility, SpaceX reported a strong second-quarter 2026 earnings, with overall revenue surging 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion. Connectivity revenue grew 66% to $4.3 billion, driven by a doubling of Starlink subscribers to 12 million. The company's AI revenue also saw substantial growth, jumping 247% to $2.6 billion, fueled by new cloud services and infrastructure agreements.
However, concerns remain regarding the company's heavy capital expenditure, particularly in artificial intelligence initiatives, which reached $15.83 billion in the second quarter and contributed to negative free cash flow of approximately $25 billion for the first half of 2026. This spending reflects SpaceX's expansion into AI infrastructure following its acquisition of Elon Musk's xAI.
Analyst Glenn Thum of Phillip Securities has reiterated a 'Sell' rating for SpaceX stock, maintaining a 12-month price target of $75, implying a potential 46.6% downside. Thum's bearish outlook is based on the company's high CapEx, AI customer concentration, and temporary cloud contracts.
In contrast, the majority of Wall Street analysts hold a more optimistic view. A survey by TipRanks indicated that 31 analysts have set an average 12-month price target of $232.35, suggesting a potential 64% upside. The highest forecast for SPCX is around $800, while the lowest remains at $75.