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Kenya private sector activity contracts in August

Created at 3 Sep · 7:22 AM2 sources↑ Market-relevant2 events
IN SHORT

Kenya's private sector activity fell into contraction for the first time in three months in August, with the Purchasing Managers' Index dropping to 49.7 due to supply constraints and rising costs.

Key Numbers

49.7August PMI reading for Kenya
51.3July PMI reading for Kenya
6.6%Kenya's August inflation rate
5.0%Kenya's estimated economic growth for 2024
5.1%Kenya's forecast economic growth for 2027
5.2%Kenya's forecast economic growth for 2028

Who's Involved

Stanbic Bank
Provider of the Kenya Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI)
Christopher Legilisho
Stanbic Bank economist
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics
Source of Kenya's inflation data
Kenya Ministry of Finance
Issuer of economic growth forecasts
Kenya private sector activity contracts in August

↳ Why This Matters

The contraction in Kenya's private sector activity signals potential headwinds for economic growth, driven by persistent cost pressures and supply chain issues that could impact businesses and consumers.

Key facts

  • Kenya's private sector activity contracted in August, falling below the 50.0 growth threshold for the first time in three months.
  • The Stanbic Bank Kenya Purchasing Managers' Index decreased to 49.7 from 51.3 in July.
  • Supply constraints and cost pressures led companies to reduce output and purchases.
  • High raw material costs and tight cash flows limited firms' ability to translate stronger demand into output.
  • Kenya's year-on-year inflation rose slightly to 6.6% in August.

Kenya's private sector activity contracted in August, marking the first decline in three months, according to a survey by Stanbic Bank. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.7 from 51.3 in July, dropping below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction. This slowdown was attributed to supply constraints and cost pressures, which led companies to reduce output and purchases. Stanbic Bank economist Christopher Legilisho noted that high raw material costs and tight cash flows limited firms' ability to translate stronger demand into output. Kenya's year-on-year inflation increased slightly to 6.6% in August from 6.5% in July. The finance ministry projects economic growth of 5.0% for the current year, with forecasts of 5.1% in 2027 and 5.2% in 2028.

Frequently asked questions

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in private sector activity, while a reading below 50 suggests contraction. The 49.7 reading in August signifies a contraction.

Supply constraints, high raw material costs, and tight cash flows limited companies' ability to increase output despite stronger demand.

Inflation rose slightly in August and is a factor contributing to cost pressures for businesses.

What Happens Next

01Monitor future PMI releases for sustained trends in Kenyan private sector activity.
02Observe inflation data for further insights into cost pressures.
03Track economic growth figures against ministry forecasts.
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How It Developed

South Africa's private sector activity grew slightly in August, with the PMI rising to 50.5 due to increased new orders and output.
Kenya's private sector activity contracted for the first time in three months in August, with the PMI falling to 49.7.
High raw material costs and tight cash flows limited Kenya's ability to translate stronger demand into output.
Kenya's inflation rose slightly to 6.6% year-on-year in August.
Kenya's finance ministry forecasts economic growth of 5.1% in 2027 and 5.2% in 2028.

Sources

T1
South African private sector activity expands slightly in August, PMI showsReuters
T2
South Africa's business activity edges up as cost pressures ease in ...thebusinessexecutive.net
T2
South Africa Private Sector Sees Marginal Growth in Augusttradingeconomics.com
T2
South Africa Private Sector Posts Slight Expansiontradingeconomics.com

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