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South Africa's Q2 GDP contracts 0.2%, missing forecasts

Created at 8 Sep · 9:06 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

South Africa's economy contracted 0.2% in the second quarter of 2026, missing economists' forecasts for a 0.1% shrinkage. On a year-on-year basis, GDP grew 0.9%, also below expectations.

Key Numbers

0.2%Q2 GDP contraction (q/q)
0.1%Q2 GDP contraction forecast (q/q)
0.4%Q1 GDP growth (revised)
0.9%Q2 GDP growth (y/y)
1.2%Q2 GDP growth forecast (y/y)
3.7%Mining and quarrying industry growth
0.2%Mining and quarrying contribution to GDP
1.8%Manufacturing industry growth
0.2%Manufacturing contribution to GDP
1.7%Trade, catering, accommodation industry growth
0.2%Trade, catering, accommodation contribution to GDP
0.8%Transport, storage, communication industry decrease
0.3%Construction industry decrease

Who's Involved

Statistics South Africa
Agency that released the GDP data
Reuters
News agency reporting on the GDP data
SAnews
South African government news agency
South Africa's Q2 GDP contracts 0.2%, missing forecasts

↳ Why This Matters

The contraction in South Africa's GDP signals a slowdown in economic activity, potentially impacting employment, investment, and government revenue. The underperformance relative to forecasts suggests underlying economic challenges that could affect the country's financial stability and growth prospects.

Key facts

  • South Africa's economy contracted 0.2% in the second quarter of 2026.
  • Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.1% shrinkage.
  • Year-on-year GDP growth was 0.9% in April-June, below the forecast 1.2%.
  • The mining and quarrying industry grew 3.7%, contributing 0.2 percentage points to GDP.
  • Manufacturing increased by 1.8%, contributing 0.2% to GDP.
  • Trade, catering, and accommodation increased by 1.7%, contributing 0.2 percentage points.

South Africa's economy experienced a contraction of 0.2% in the second quarter of 2026, according to seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter data released by Statistics South Africa. This figure fell short of the 0.1% shrinkage anticipated by economists polled by Reuters. The first quarter of the year had seen a revised growth of 0.4%.

On an annual basis, the gross domestic product (GDP) for April-June grew by 0.9%, also underperforming the forecasted 1.2% growth.

However, a separate report from SAnews indicated that South Africa's real GDP improved by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2025, following a 0.1% increase in the first quarter. This report highlighted positive contributions from the mining and quarrying industry (up 3.7%), manufacturing (up 1.8%), and trade, catering, and accommodation (up 1.7%). Conversely, the transport, storage, and communication industry saw a decrease of 0.8%, and the construction industry declined by 0.3%.

Frequently asked questions

South Africa's GDP saw a revised growth of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2026.

The mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and trade, catering, and accommodation industries reported positive growth in Q2 2025.

The transport, storage, and communication industry, as well as the construction industry, reported decreases in Q2 2025.

What Happens Next

01Monitor future GDP releases for signs of economic recovery or continued contraction.
02Analyze central bank policy responses to economic performance.
03Observe the impact of sector-specific growth or decline on overall economic trends.
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How It Developed

South Africa's economy contracted 0.2% in the second quarter of 2026.
Economists had forecast a 0.1% shrinkage in gross domestic product.
GDP grew 0.9% year-on-year in April-June, below the forecast 1.2% growth.
Stats SA reported that real GDP improved by 0.8% in the second quarter of 2025.
The mining and quarrying industry increased by 3.7%, contributing 0.2 percentage points to GDP.
The manufacturing industry increased by 1.8%, contributing 0.2% to GDP.
The trade, catering and accommodation industry increased by 1.7%, contributing 0.2 percentage points.
The transport, storage and communication industry decreased by 0.8%.

Sources

T1
South Africa's second quarter GDP contracts 0.2% q/qReuters
T2
GDP bounces to 0.8% growth in Quarter 2 | SAnewssanews.gov.za

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