Key facts
- A solar geoengineering simulation highlighted geopolitical challenges in governing climate-cooling technologies.
- Participants in the simulation struggled with distrust and disinformation, hindering international cooperation.
- National interests and suspicion of rivals prevented agreement on research and deployment rules.
- The simulation suggested a potential for a geoengineering arms race, similar to nuclear dynamics.
- Private firms are actively developing solar geoengineering technologies, raising concerns about rapid deployment.
A simulated United Nations committee meeting designed to test global responses to solar geoengineering technologies revealed deep-seated distrust and a potential for an arms race. The simulation, titled Exploring Geopolitical Tipping Points and Climate Cooling Strategies, convened foreign-relations experts, scientists, military personnel, and former government officials.
Participants were assigned roles representing national governments, climate NGOs, indigenous groups, and tech companies. The goal was to stress-test the world's response to solar radiation modification technologies, which aim to cool the planet by reflecting sunlight but carry vast, unknown risks. Climate researcher Colleen Golja, who provided technical advice, expressed surprise at the lack of consensus on ethical research, stating, “And boy, was I wrong.”
The simulation unfolded over three simulated time points, with increasing stakes and advances in sunlight-reflecting technology. The first session was dominated by distrust and disinformation. Players representing the US and China refused to sign international agreements that constrained their research or favored their rivals. Tensions escalated when Russian delegates received a simulated intelligence report suggesting a US geoengineering program, leading to accusations of disinformation from the US team.
Meanwhile, the US became convinced China was also conducting research, and China's representatives attempted to insert language into a mooted deal to avoid retroactive punishment for past experiments. China also approached SpaceX about a technology-sharing program, which the SpaceX player immediately reported to the US team, prompting demands for an international investigation. The talks ultimately collapsed, with the Canadian representative calling it a "humiliating defeat."
US Army Major Jeffrey Nielsen, who played a US national security attaché, described the outcome as a "humungous victory" for the Americans in the context of the game, having derailed any prospect of a global deal. However, the simulation's designer, Danielle Young, noted that China was not actually conducting experiments in the game. The exercise highlighted how mutual suspicion could lead all parties to believe rivals were rapidly advancing their geoengineering capabilities.
Nielsen, speaking in a private capacity, stated that the scenario reflected "the likelihood, in my opinion, of the geoengineering arms race." He noted that while superpowers would be needed for deployment, neither the US nor China would easily cede control over the global thermostat, and distrust poses a significant risk. A former British diplomat with national security experience added that while competition drives research and development, it is distinct from deployment, drawing parallels to nuclear arms dynamics but emphasizing that solar radiation management has potential benefits alongside poorly understood downsides.