Key facts
- The Bank of Russia held its key interest rate at 14% on September 11, 2026.
- This is the first time since mid-June 2025 that the rate has not been cut.
- Heightened inflation risks, including fuel shortages and price surges, prompted the decision.
- The central bank estimates underlying price growth has accelerated to 5-6% annualized.
- Annual inflation stood at 6.3% as of September 7, 2026.
- The bank expects inflation to reach 6-7% in 2026 and 4% in 2027.
The Bank of Russia's Board of Directors decided on September 11, 2026, to maintain its key interest rate at 14.00% per annum. This decision marks the first instance since mid-June 2025 that the central bank has opted against a rate reduction. The move comes amid heightened inflation risks, exacerbated by fuel shortages and price surges attributed to Ukrainian drone strikes.
The central bank noted that the Russian economy is experiencing moderate growth in the third quarter of 2026, with investment levels recovering. However, current price pressures have significantly increased in recent months, with underlying price growth estimated to have accelerated to an annualized 5-6%. As of September 7, 2026, annual inflation stood at 6.3%. The Bank of Russia projects inflation to be between 6-7% in 2026, with a subsequent decline to 4% in 2027.
Despite pressure from Russian businesses advocating for lower borrowing costs, the central bank's decision reflects concerns about elevated inflation expectations. The bank indicated that monetary conditions are assessed as moderately tight, with lending activity remaining elevated, particularly in the corporate segment. Proinflationary risks, stemming from supply-demand imbalances and a longer contraction of production capacities, are seen as prevailing over disinflationary ones.