Key facts
- Europe must switch to 'war-mode' defence production to match Russia's pace, says Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz.
- Russia is projected to spend 7.5% of its GDP on defence in 2026 and produced ~7 million artillery, mortar, tank and rocket rounds in 2025.
- Russian forces use 10,000-15,000 rounds daily in Ukraine.
- The EU and Norway are expected to produce only 2 million 150mm ammunition shells this year.
- EU defence spending was estimated at €418 billion (2.2% of GDP) in 2025.
- Poland spends 4.7% of its GDP on defence capabilities.
Europe must transition its defence sector to a 'war-mode' of production to keep pace with Russia and ensure future security, according to Polish Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz. Speaking at the Warsaw Security Forum, Kosiniak-Kamysz emphasized that Russia's current wartime production capabilities, including its significant daily expenditure of artillery and other rounds in Ukraine, cannot be ignored.
Russia has reportedly shifted towards wartime defence production and is projected to allocate 7.5% of its gross domestic product to its armed forces in 2026. An Estonian intelligence report indicated that Russia produced approximately seven million artillery, mortar, tank, and rocket rounds in 2025, with current daily usage in Ukraine estimated between 10,000 and 15,000 rounds.
In contrast, Europe's defence industry has suffered from decades of underinvestment and fragmentation. A leaked report suggests that the 27 EU member states and Norway combined are expected to produce only two million 150mm ammunition shells this year. Despite recent rearmament efforts and the strongest annual increase in defence spending since the Cold War, the EU's total defence expenditure in 2025 was estimated at €418 billion, representing 2.2% of the bloc's GDP.
Kosiniak-Kamysz warned that failing to multiply defence production would be a "costly" mistake with negative repercussions for future generations. Poland, he noted, is among the leading nations in defence spending, allocating 4.7% of its GDP to core defence capabilities, according to US envoy to NATO Matthew Whitaker.