Panmure Liberum forecasts S&P 500 falling to 5,000 by end of 2027

Panmure Liberum has forecast that the benchmark S&P 500 index will retreat to 5,000 points by the end of 2027, warning that the current equity bull market may end sooner than many investors anticipate. This outlook contrasts with projections from several other brokerages that expect the S&P 500 to remain at or above 8,000 through 2026.

US stocks have shown resilience despite headwinds such as persistent inflation, rising bond yields, and higher interest rates. The S&P 500 has extended its bull run, which began in October 2022, and has gained 12.8% year-to-date. Panmure's 2027 forecast implies a decline of over 35% from its last reported close of 7,722.72.

Joachim Klement, a research analyst at Panmure Liberum, stated that sustained higher bond yields and interest rates could signal that the end of the equity bull market is nearer than commonly believed. He noted that strong earnings growth and robust economic data have supported equities, but upcoming third-quarter earnings reports and companies' 2027 outlooks will be critical tests of this strength.

In addition to the S&P 500 forecast, Panmure Liberum expects Europe's STOXX 600 index to fall to 430 points and the UK's FTSE 100 index to decline to 8,260 by the end of next year, both significantly below their current levels. Klement added that potential further interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England could accelerate the end of the current bull market.