Key facts
- Victorian Premier Ben Carroll faces a state election on November 28.
- Labor-aligned strategist Kos Samaras predicts Labor will only win in "diaspora corridors of Melbourne".
- Polls suggest One Nation could capture an average of 23% of the vote.
- Election analyst Antony Green stated One Nation's vote will determine the election outcome.
- One Nation previously outpolled the Liberals in South Australia and won four seats.
- Newspoll indicates the Liberal-National coalition leads Labor 52% to 48% on a two-party-preferred basis in Victoria.
Victorian Premier Ben Carroll is facing a challenging state election on November 28, with polls suggesting a significant surge in support for the right-wing nationalist party One Nation. Labor-aligned strategist Kos Samaras believes Labor will only secure victories in Melbourne's "diaspora corridors" where large numbers of first-generation migrants reside, leaving "everywhere else up for grabs."
Election analyst Antony Green stated that the concentration and size of One Nation's vote will be decisive in determining whether Labor wins, if a minority or majority Coalition government is formed, or even the possibility of a One Nation-led government.
Recent polling indicates that the ruling Labor government, seeking a rare fourth term, is vulnerable. Newspoll data shows the Liberal-National coalition leading Labor 52% to 48% on a two-party-preferred basis. In terms of primary vote, the coalition leads with 31%, followed by Labor at 28%, and One Nation at 19%.
One Nation has previously demonstrated its disruptive potential, notably in South Australia in March, where it outpolled the Liberals statewide and secured four lower house seats. Analysts suggest that Victoria's Labor government is in a weaker position than the dominant state Labor government in South Australia was at the time of that election, making it potentially more vulnerable in working-class, outer-suburban electorates.
Former Premier Daniel Andrews cautioned that elections are often decided by narrow margins in a few key seats, expressing confidence that Premier Carroll's team can still win in November.