Key facts
- 13.9 million homes are expected to be freed up by older homeowners over the next decade.
- This represents a 34% increase in home releases compared to the previous 10 years.
- Only 3.2% of released homes are expected to be starter homes (0-2 bedrooms).
- Family homes (3-4 bedrooms) will constitute 71.2% of the released inventory.
- The pace of home releases is projected to accelerate from 1.27 million in 2027 to 1.52 million by 2036.
- Homeownership turnover is faster in the Rust Belt and Midwest than in coastal markets.
Aging baby boomer and Silent Generation homeowners are expected to release approximately 13.9 million homes over the next decade, a significant increase from the previous ten years. This "silver tsunami" of housing supply, however, is largely anticipated to consist of family-sized and larger properties, offering limited assistance to first-time buyers facing a persistent shortage of starter homes.
An analysis by Realtor.com projects that the number of owner-occupied homes held by these older generations will decrease from an estimated 36.7 million in 2026 to 22.8 million by 2036. This net decline of 13.9 million homes, averaging about 1.39 million per year, reflects older Americans moving, passing away, or transitioning to other living arrangements.
This projected increase in inventory, a 74% rise in turnover from older homeowners compared to the last decade, is expected to accelerate over time, with the pace increasing from about 1.27 million homes annually in 2027 to 1.52 million by 2036. While the Silent Generation is currently the main source of these released homes, the boomer cohort is expected to become the primary driver around 2029.
Despite owning a substantial portion of starter homes, older Americans are projected to release a disproportionately small number of these smaller properties. Only about 38,000 starter homes per year are expected to become available, representing just 3.2% of current annual listings. This is partly attributed to a higher share of paid-off mortgages among owners of smaller homes, reducing the financial pressure to sell.
In contrast, family homes (3-4 bedrooms) are expected to account for 71.2% of the released inventory, with 9.9 million units becoming available over the decade. Large homes (5+ bedrooms) will contribute another 3.6 million units. This shift in inventory composition suggests more opportunities for move-up buyers and growing families, potentially easing price pressures in these segments and indirectly freeing up some starter homes as owners upgrade.
The overall impact on housing prices is expected to be gradual and uneven across markets. Turnover is occurring more rapidly in the Rust Belt and Midwest compared to expensive coastal markets where affordability issues are most acute. Therefore, the additional supply is more likely to lead to localized softening, particularly in mid- and large-sized homes in slower-growing areas, rather than a broad national price correction.