Key facts
- Oil prices are nearing a 5% weekly gain due to stalled US-Iran talks and increased attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Brent crude is approaching $100 per barrel, while WTI crude futures rose to $85.04.
- Stalled diplomatic efforts and attacks in the Strait of Hormuz are heightening worries about energy supply.
- OPEC has lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 b/d.
- The International Energy Agency predicts a global supply fall of 4.3 million b/d in 2026.
- Saudi Aramco is facing challenges securing September crude sales due to shipping route disruptions.
- A Ukrainian drone strike has completely shut down Russia's Orsk refinery.
Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as stalled US-Iran peace talks and increased attacks in the Strait of Hormuz heightened worries about energy supply. Brent crude futures rose 0.3% to $91.14, nearing a recent high, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 0.5% to $85.04.
Analysts cited the increasingly shaky US-Iran relations and the lack of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as key drivers. Ship-tracking data showed only five commodity vessels transited the strait on Saturday, a significant drop from previous weeks.
The ongoing conflict and attacks on vessels have led shipowners to avoid key shipping lanes, impacting supply chains and forcing Saudi Aramco to increase domestic inventories. OPEC has further reduced its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, projecting a figure of 580,000 b/d, while the IEA anticipates a deepening global oil supply deficit in 2026, forecasting a fall of 4.3 million b/d.
Geopolitical developments continue to shape the market. Iran insists on its authority over the Strait of Hormuz, directly challenging US claims of control. Meanwhile, Ukraine has reportedly proposed a truce on attacks against civilian vessels to mitigate the impact on its agricultural exports. In Russia, a drone strike has completely shut down the Orsk refinery, and an oil spill from a sanctioned tanker is affecting Oman's coastline.