Key facts
- The Monetary Authority of Singapore kept its policy on hold, contrary to analyst expectations.
- US CPI data for September is expected to show a 0.6% month-on-month rise.
- Annual US inflation is forecast to accelerate to 3.6% in September.
- New York Federal Reserve President John Williams indicated one more US interest rate hike this year.
- Traders see a 77% chance the Fed will leave its policy rate unchanged at the October 27-28 meeting.
- Oil prices rose amid attacks on Saudi Arabia and concerns over the Strait of Hormuz.
Global markets are anticipating key US inflation data and further signals from central banks, with Singapore's Monetary Authority delivering a surprise policy hold. The MAS kept its monetary policy settings unchanged, citing expectations of easing growth and inflation, a move that defied the consensus of 10 analysts polled by Reuters.
In the US, the Labor Department's September consumer price index report is the main economic event, with analysts forecasting a 0.6% month-on-month increase and annual inflation accelerating to 3.6%. The Federal Reserve will also release its Beige Book report, offering insights into regional economic conditions as policymakers deliberate on further tightening. New York Fed President John Williams suggested one more rate hike this year but downplayed the need for increases in 2027.
Traders are pricing in a 77% chance that the Fed will maintain its policy rate at its upcoming meeting, an increase from 51% a month ago, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman is scheduled to speak in Bangkok, where the International Monetary Fund and World Bank are holding their annual meetings. At these meetings, IMF official Rodrigo Valdes urged governments to control debt, while European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde specifically advised France to address its own debt challenges.
Corporate earnings provided mixed signals, with Citigroup reporting varied results. Wednesday's earnings calendar includes BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America, all of which analysts expect to report increased third-quarter profits.
Meanwhile, oil prices saw an increase in Asian trading due to continued attacks by Yemen's Iran-allied Houthis on Saudi Arabia and threats to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. China's export growth in September surpassed forecasts, supported by strong overseas demand that helped offset weaker domestic consumer spending. Early European trading saw futures for the Euro Stoxx 50, DAX, and FTSE indices edge higher, while US S&P 500 e-mini futures also indicated a positive open.