Key facts
- JPMorgan believes US CPI data is more crucial than jobs data for the Fed's rate decision.
- The bank's ideal US job creation range is 30,000-70,000.
- Wall Street expects 53,000 new US jobs in August, with unemployment at 4.1%.
- Market odds indicate a 64.2% chance of a September Fed rate hike.
- Recent Fed comments have reinforced expectations of a September rate hike.
The crypto market is approaching key economic data releases with caution, as JPMorgan suggests that US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures will carry more weight than upcoming jobs data in determining the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move. The bank's analysis indicates that a US job creation figure between 30,000 and 70,000 would be an optimal outcome, balancing labor market cooling with inflation concerns.
Wall Street consensus anticipates approximately 53,000 new jobs for August, with the unemployment rate expected to hold at 4.1%. Recent ADP data showed only 38,000 private sector jobs were created in August, signaling potential weakness. Despite these figures, market odds, reflected by the CME FedWatch Tool, show a 64.2% probability of a September rate hike, further solidified by recent hawkish comments from Fed officials.
Stronger-than-expected employment data could fuel inflation concerns and potentially lead to higher Treasury yields, negatively impacting risk assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, a weaker jobs report or rising unemployment might ease rate hike fears, potentially benefiting cryptocurrencies. Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe has projected a surge in Bitcoin's price to $82,700, suggesting its recent correction may be over and that sideways trading could boost altcoins.