Key facts
- Japan aims to attract 60 million foreign tourists annually by 2030.
- A shortage of 536,000 workers is projected in accommodation and food services by 2030 if the target is met.
- The Asia Pacific Institute of Research recommends reducing the target to 40 million visitors.
- Productivity in the tourism sector would need to increase by 2.8% annually to meet the 60 million visitor goal.
- Japan is expected to face the largest relative tourism labor shortfall globally by 2035.
Japan's ambitious goal of welcoming 60 million foreign tourists annually by 2030 is facing significant headwinds from a projected labor shortage and rising costs, according to recent reports. Mori Trust forecasts 42 million visitors for 2026, consistent with last year's record, but a think tank warns that reaching the 2030 target could leave the country short of 536,000 workers in the accommodation and food service sectors.
The Asia Pacific Institute of Research suggests that Japan should lower its tourism target to 40 million visitors and focus on increasing per capita spending to mitigate labor shortages and overtourism concerns. The institute estimates that to achieve the 60 million visitor goal, annual productivity in these sectors would need to increase by 2.8%, a figure significantly higher than the 0.7% required for a 40 million visitor target.
Globally, Japan is expected to be the most impacted by tourism labor shortages, with the World Travel & Tourism Council projecting a 29% shortfall in the workforce by 2035. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated existing issues by causing many skilled professionals to leave the industry. While Japan has expanded visa programs to attract foreign workers, concerns remain about service quality and the sustainability of the sector.
Overtourism is already impacting domestic travel, with areas like Kyoto experiencing congestion and increased costs, driving away local tourists. The institute recommends wage increases that outpace inflation and greater adoption of digital technology and robotics to improve productivity and make inbound tourism more sustainable.