Key facts
- Italy's population is projected to decrease by nearly 4 million by 2050, reaching 55 million.
- By 2080, the population is expected to fall further to 45.8 million.
- The share of Italians aged 65 and over is forecast to rise to 34.5% by 2050.
- The working-age population is projected to decline to 55.3% by 2050.
- Southern Italy is expected to face the most significant population decline.
Italy's resident population is projected to decline by nearly 4 million by 2050, falling to 55 million from 58.9 million at the start of 2025, according to new demographic projections released by the national statistics bureau ISTAT. The population is expected to drop further to 45.8 million by 2080.
The declining birth rate, which has seen births fall to the lowest number since Italy's unification in 1861, coupled with an aging population and rising deaths, are the primary drivers of this demographic shift. ISTAT forecasts that annual births will remain broadly stable until 2030 before declining to 335,000 by 2050, while deaths are projected to increase significantly as the large post-war baby boom generation reaches old age.
This demographic trend will lead to a substantial increase in the proportion of elderly citizens, with those aged 65 or over expected to comprise 34.5% of the population by 2050, up from 24.7% in 2025. Conversely, the working-age population (15-64 years old) is forecast to shrink to 55.3% from 63.4%.
ISTAT warned that a shrinking workforce and a growing number of pensioners will present significant challenges to Italy's economic system and welfare provisions. The demographic decline is also expected to be unevenly distributed, with the poorer southern regions of Italy anticipated to experience the most severe population losses, falling from 19.7 million in 2025 to 16.7 million in 2050, while central and northern regions will see a more moderate decrease.