Key facts
- Israel anticipates a potential return to fighting in Gaza within two months.
- The US-led 'Board of Peace' is expected to rule Hamas has violated the ceasefire.
- Recent Israeli drone strikes in Gaza killed two Palestinians.
- A ceasefire deal was signed on November 26, 2024, but violations are reported.
- The 'Board of Peace' is chaired by US President Donald Trump.
Israeli forces conducted attacks in southern Lebanon and multiple areas of Gaza on Monday, according to Lebanese and Palestinian media reports. In Lebanon, strikes hit the towns of al-Mansouri and Tallousah. In Gaza, at least two Palestinians were reported killed in separate Israeli drone strikes. Wafa news agency reported one person killed near the Asqoula junction in Gaza City and another near the Abu Sharikh roundabout in Jabalia refugee camp, with additional casualties reported. Earlier attacks in Beit Lahiya and Gaza City also resulted in casualties.
Israeli broadcaster Channel 12 reported that Israeli officials expect fighting in Gaza could resume within the next two months, potentially before October elections. The report cited Israeli officials who believe the US-led "Board of Peace" will conclude within two to three months that Hamas has violated the ceasefire agreement by refusing to disarm. Such a ruling could allow Israel to renew operations in parts of Gaza outside its current control.
The Board of Peace, chaired by US President Donald Trump, was established in January under a US initiative aimed at securing a settlement in Gaza, following a ceasefire agreement reached in October 2024. Despite the ceasefire, Israel has reportedly violated the agreement, killing over 1,000 Palestinians and expanding a buffer zone while maintaining restrictions on humanitarian aid. Hamas has refused to discuss disarmament until Israel fulfills its obligations under the first phase of the agreement.
Analysts suggest that while both Israel and Lebanon desire the success of the recent agreement, Israel's actions in Lebanon pose a significant obstacle. The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah began after Hamas and other Palestinian armed groups attacked southern Israel on October 7, 2023. Hezbollah has fired rockets at Israel in solidarity with Palestinians, and Yemen's Houthi group has attacked ships in the Red Sea. Israel's military has intensified operations in Lebanon, creating a new front in the regional conflict. Since October 7, 2023, Israeli attacks in Lebanon have resulted in at least 5,282 deaths and wounded 2,141, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health. More than one million Lebanese have been displaced, with Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz stating that the return of people to the country’s south is contingent on guaranteeing the safety of Israelis. Data from ACLED indicates at least 394 Israeli attacks on Lebanon, primarily concentrated in the south and southern suburbs of Beirut, but also extending to the Bekaa Valley and Baalbek.
Israel and Hezbollah signed a ceasefire deal on November 26, 2024, but Israel has not withdrawn its troops and has continued attacks in violation of the agreement. The Israeli army expanded forced displacement orders for residents of southern Lebanon, covering over 1,470 square kilometers, or about 14 percent of the country’s territory. Nearly 18 percent of Lebanon's population has been displaced in recent weeks.