Key facts
- IEA forecasts a 1.56 million bpd decline in global oil demand for 2026.
- OPEC forecasts 580,000 bpd global oil demand growth in 2026.
- IEA expects a 1.8 million bpd deficit between July and September.
- IEA forecasts global oil supply to fall by 4.3 million bpd in 2026.
- US commercial crude oil inventories saw a surprise build of 17.4 million barrels last week.
Oil prices fell in Asian trading as both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC issued downward revisions to their 2026 global oil demand forecasts. The IEA now expects demand to slump by 1.56 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, a steeper decline than previously projected, citing Hormuz disruptions and higher prices. The agency also forecasts a 4.3 million bpd fall in global oil supply in 2026 and expects a deficit of 1.8 million bpd this quarter. OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast to 580,000 bpd, down from 780,000 bpd previously. Adding to bearish sentiment, U.S. crude inventories saw a surprise build of 17.4 million barrels last week, driven by increased imports and decreased exports. Despite ongoing Middle East tensions and U.S.-Iran talks, demand concerns and the inventory build weighed on prices.