Key facts
- Houthi forces now occupy positions from which they can monitor or threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
- The Bab el-Mandeb Strait carried around 8.7 million barrels of oil per day in 2023.
- Roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024.
- The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act targets 10% domestic extraction, 40% processing, and 25% recycling of critical materials by 2030.
- Faster clean-energy deployment could cut the EU’s fossil-fuel import bill by €130 billion annually by 2030, according to Commission estimates.
The Houthi seizure of key coastal areas in Yemen, including the port of Mokha and Perim Island, has placed them in a position to monitor or threaten the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical global shipping route. This development exacerbates existing disruptions to energy markets, including the Strait of Hormuz and the Saudi East-West pipeline. The article argues that these events are not isolated incidents but part of a recurring pattern of fossil-fuel insecurity driven by dependence on transit routes and unstable suppliers.
Historically, events like the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the Iranian Revolution, the Iran-Iraq War, and more recent attacks on Saudi facilities have exposed the vulnerability of oil and gas supplies. The current situation highlights how rerouting oil shipments around Africa adds significant costs and time, while also creating new potential targets. Europe's shift from Russian pipeline gas to US LNG, while improving diversification, has not created autonomy, as energy purchases are increasingly tied to broader trade negotiations.
While strategic reserves and alternative routes provide some buffer, they do not fundamentally alter the model of dependency. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has characterized the current year's conflict as the largest oil-supply disruption in market history. The author contends that the rational response is not to rely on these buffers but to reduce the overall dependence on essential services that require daily fuel deliveries.
The article advocates for a decisive shift towards renewable energy sources, electrified transport, and heat pumps. Unlike fossil fuels, which require continuous delivery, renewables are embedded in infrastructure and do not cease operating if supply chains for their components are disrupted. The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act aims to bolster domestic capacity in extraction, processing, and recycling, with estimates suggesting faster clean-energy deployment could save the EU €130 billion annually in fossil-fuel import costs by 2030. This transition is framed not just as climate action but as a purchase of strategic freedom, though the risk of shifting dependency to Chinese-supplied materials is acknowledged.