Key facts
- Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dwindled over the past seven months.
- Vessels are rerouting via South Africa's Cape of Good Hope, doubling traffic.
- The expected economic windfall for Southern Africa has not materialized.
- South African ports like Durban and Cape Town have not seen significant increases in arrivals.
- The detour adds 5,000 miles and over $1 million in fuel costs per trip.
- Cape Town was ranked last out of 400 global ports in the Container Port Performance Index.
- Durban received a 398th ranking in the Container Port Performance Index.
- Mozambique LNG project resumed construction in January 2026.
- ExxonMobil's Rovuma LNG project targets capacity of up to 18.6 million tonnes per year.
- Tanzania's Lindi LNG project is valued at $42 billion.
Shipping traffic around South Africa's Cape of Good Hope has doubled over the past seven months as global shipping companies reroute vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed since U.S. and Israeli attacks. However, the anticipated economic benefits for Southern Africa, such as increased demand for fuel and port services, have largely not materialized.
Major ports like Durban and Cape Town have not seen a significant rise in vessel arrivals. Most diverted ships and tankers are transiting South African waters without stopping due to logistical and economic challenges. The detour around the Cape adds approximately 5,000 miles, up to 14 days, and over a million dollars in extra fuel costs per trip compared to standard routes through the Middle East and Suez.
South Africa's maritime infrastructure faces significant operational inefficiencies and aging equipment. Cape Town was ranked last among 400 global ports in the Container Port Performance Index, attributed to weather disruptions, equipment failures, and long waiting times outside berths. Durban was ranked 398th. Transnet, the state-owned logistics operator, struggles with equipment shortages, outdated cranes, limited capacity, and inadequate rail links, exacerbating congestion.
Despite these issues, Durban was recognized as the most improved container port globally, with vessel waiting times at anchorage dropping to zero and productive time at the berth increasing to 76%. However, the increased traffic puts pressure on governments to spend more on maritime surveillance and emergency response, and raises the risk of spills. Regional energy markets are also affected, with higher fuel costs and increased competition for supplies.
Meanwhile, billions of dollars are flowing into Southern Africa's oil and gas sector through new and revived projects. These include the Mozambique LNG project led by TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil's Rovuma LNG project, and Tanzania's Lindi LNG project involving Shell and Equinor. The Dangote Southern Africa Corridor Pipeline is also planned. These investments, while potentially bringing export revenue, also increase the exposure of new energy infrastructure to greater security and environmental risks along the coast.