Healey appoints Labour manifesto writer, fuelling election speculation

Ravinder Athwal, the economist credited with writing Labour’s 2024 manifesto, is taking on a senior advisory role with Chancellor John Healey, a move that is likely to intensify speculation about an early general election. Athwal, a Cambridge economics graduate, was closely involved in shaping Labour's policy approach and devising Keir Starmer’s five key "missions" for government.

Healey has recruited Athwal from Flint Global, a business advisory group formerly led by James Purnell, a former Blair-era cabinet minister and chief of staff to Andy Burnham. Athwal previously served as a senior economic adviser in Starmer’s Downing Street team for a year before joining Flint Global.

A source close to Healey described Athwal as an "experienced heavyweight economist" whose guidance will be "invaluable" ahead of the critical budget on October 28, particularly as the economy faces challenges from high oil prices and rising government borrowing costs. His appointment could also be seen as a strategic move if Labour decides to draw up a fresh manifesto for a snap election, which has been rumoured following a recent uptick in the party's poll numbers.

However, some within Labour may view Athwal's presence as reinforcing a "continuity Starmer" economic approach, potentially driven by Treasury caution. The manifesto's pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance, or VAT, while seen as crucial to Labour's past electoral success, has constrained the party's fiscal flexibility in government. People familiar with Athwal's thinking suggest he has learned from the party's early experiences in office.

Before his political roles, Athwal was a respected Treasury civil servant, heading the growth strategy division. Healey, who took over at the Treasury in July, has also appointed Will Straw as his chief of staff. Some of Rachel Reeves's economic advisers, including Spencer Thompson, have remained, while Reeves's former chief economic adviser, Neil Amin-Smith, has moved to Burnham's No 10.

Athwal's arrival comes just a month before Healey's first budget, which is expected to be challenging. High inflation and surging borrowing costs are anticipated to have significantly reduced the fiscal headroom previously established against Labour's rules. Healey faces difficult decisions regarding tax and spending, with sources indicating a desire for a "focused" budget, potentially delaying major fiscal decisions until a spending review next year.