Goldman Sachs: AI hiring slump disproportionately affects junior white-collar roles

Artificial intelligence is beginning to exert the most significant hiring pressure on junior white-collar positions, according to an analysis by Goldman Sachs. The research indicates that entry-level workers in fields such as management consulting, advertising, software publishing, and call centers are experiencing the most pronounced effects, as generative AI increasingly handles tasks traditionally performed by these roles.

Goldman Sachs analyzed employment trends across more than 800 occupations and found that industries with higher exposure to AI automation have generally seen weaker growth in job openings since the latter half of 2022. While the impact on the broader labor market remains relatively small—a 10% occupational exposure to AI was associated with only a 0.1 percentage point drag on annual headcount growth in the US, France, and Canada—the effect is more substantial for entry-level workers, estimated at over 0.2 percentage points in the US and more than 0.6 percentage points in Australia.

This analysis coincides with a broader weakening of the UK labor market. Office for National Statistics figures show job vacancies fell to 707,000 in the three months to July, the lowest in over five years. Employee numbers on company payrolls also declined for the sixth consecutive month, and private sector wage growth slowed to 2.8%, its weakest pace since October 2020. Goldman Sachs clarified that its findings do not attribute this broader UK slowdown to AI, concluding that the technology's employment effects are currently concentrated in specific industries and worker groups.

Despite the concentrated impact, the UK is noted as a leading developed economy in AI adoption, alongside the US, France, and the Netherlands. Separate research from Lloyds Business Barometer indicates that 54% of UK businesses have created new roles due to AI, with 21% introducing dedicated AI positions. Looking ahead, 58% of businesses plan to increase spending on AI skills, though nearly a third acknowledge their workforce lacks the necessary capabilities to fully leverage the technology. Amanda Murphy, chief executive of Lloyds Business and Commercial Banking, emphasized the need for businesses to develop the "skills, culture and confidence" to effectively integrate AI.