Key facts
- Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to 10%.
- The bill faces obstacles including ethics provisions, stablecoin yield debates, and developer protections.
- The Senate has a narrow window for a vote, with a procedural vote scheduled for September 15.
- The SEC and CFTC are advancing independent regulatory actions as the CLARITY Act stalls.
- Agency actions may offer short-term clarity but carry the risk of reversal by a future administration.
Galaxy Research has significantly lowered its odds for the CLARITY Act's passage into law in 2026 to just 10%, citing a confluence of unresolved political and industry disputes, alongside Senate calendar constraints. The bill, which passed the House overwhelmingly in July 2025 and was advanced by the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026, faces critical obstacles including ethics restrictions on government officials' crypto holdings, pressure from community banks over stablecoin yield provisions, and renewed calls to weaken developer protections.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune declined to call a floor vote before the August recess but filed a cloture motion for September 15, the day after lawmakers return. This leaves a narrow window of only 13 working days before the Senate adjourns for midterm election activity around October 2, a timeline Galaxy deems insufficient for passage unless a motion-to-proceed vote succeeds immediately.
As legislative progress stalls, U.S. regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are accelerating independent action. The SEC is reportedly preparing two flagship crypto exemptions, 'Reg Crypto' for primary public issuance and the 'Innovation Exemption' for secondary trading of tokenized securities in DeFi, which are expected within weeks or months. The CFTC, meanwhile, issued an emergency order asserting federal jurisdiction over prediction market contracts and is coordinating with industry stakeholders through Project Crypto.
These agency-led measures could offer temporary regulatory clarity and potentially reduce enforcement risk, but Galaxy warns they lack the permanence of legislation and could be reversed by a future administration. Prediction market data on Polymarket reflects this skepticism, placing the probability of President Trump signing the bill into law in 2026 at approximately 17-19%.