Key facts
- Galaxy Digital has lowered its assessment of the CLARITY Act's passage by 2026 to 50%.
- Limited Senate floor time before the August recess is a primary reason for the reduced odds.
- JPMorgan supports the bill, emphasizing the need for robust safeguards and closing regulatory gaps.
- Key disputes remain over ethics rules, DeFi liability, and stablecoin provisions.
- The bill requires bipartisan support and at least 60 Senate votes to pass.
- President Trump's stance on signing legislation is currently tied to the passage of the SAVE America Act.
The path of the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, a bill intended to establish comprehensive guidelines for cryptocurrency regulation, remains uncertain as the US Congress faces a critical window before its August recess. Since passing the House in July 2025, the bill has encountered hurdles, including industry pushback and ethics concerns. It has cleared the Senate Agriculture and Banking Committees, setting it up for a full Senate vote. However, limited floor time and ongoing negotiations on issues like DeFi liability and ethics provisions, particularly concerning the Trump family's ties to the crypto industry, complicate its advancement. Galaxy Digital has reduced its odds of the bill passing by 2026 to 50%, down from 75% in May, citing these challenges. JPMorgan, meanwhile, supports the bill's aim for regulatory clarity but stresses the need for robust safeguards akin to traditional finance. President Donald Trump's recent cancellation of a housing bill signing, linking it to the passage of the SAVE America Act, adds another layer of uncertainty regarding his support for other legislation, including the CLARITY Act, should it reach his desk.