Key facts
- France is reportedly considering a reset in its relationship with Turkey, viewing it as a key component of future European security.
- Turkey's increasingly strained relations with Russia are a significant factor in France's reassessment.
- France sees a potential need for greater European self-reliance due to perceived US withdrawal from security commitments.
- A potential sale of French-Italian SAMP/T air defense systems to Turkey is under consideration.
- French defense companies are already engaging in partnerships with Turkish firms, particularly in drone technology.
- Analysts note ideological differences and a lack of trust persist between France and Turkey.
France is reportedly considering a significant shift in its relationship with Turkey, potentially viewing the nation as a crucial component of future European security architecture. This re-evaluation comes amid a backdrop of changing geopolitical dynamics, including Turkey's increasingly distant relations with Russia and France's perception of a potential reduction in US security commitments to Europe.
Sources familiar with the matter suggest that after years of strained relations marked by disagreements over issues such as Syria, Armenia, and the Eastern Mediterranean, Paris may be poised to open a new chapter with Ankara. This potential partnership is seen as important for initiatives like a French-led European security framework.
The cooling of ties between Turkey and Russia, evidenced by fewer engagements between President Erdogan and President Putin and the non-renewal of major gas purchase deals, is noted as a key signal for France. Furthermore, Turkey's compliance with Western sanctions on Moscow has not gone unnoticed.
Former French ambassador Gerard Araud believes that France is increasingly concerned about a potential US withdrawal from European security, regardless of future US leadership. He views Turkey as an important factor in navigating future Russian pressure and sees overlapping interests between France and Turkey on various regional issues, including Syria, Lebanon, and Iran.
In the defense sector, Turkey has expressed interest in purchasing French-Italian SAMP/T air defense systems, a sale that has been previously held up due to political tensions. French officials are reportedly reviewing the sale to accommodate Turkish demands for joint production. Partnerships are already developing, with French defense firm Safran collaborating with Turkish drone maker Baykar on integrated solutions.
However, not all perspectives are optimistic. Dorothee Schmid, an analyst at the French think-tank IFRI, holds a more pessimistic view, stating that France perceives Turkey's pursuit of self-interest and autocratic tendencies as incompatible with European values. Longstanding challenges, such as Macron's avoidance of visits to Ankara and disputes over French schools in Turkey, continue to affect the relationship. A potential state visit by Macron might be contingent on Turkey opening its border with Armenia.
The Eastern Mediterranean also remains a point of contention, with France's defense treaty with Greece highlighting its commitment to Greek sovereignty, a stance that contrasts with Turkey's regional ambitions.