Key facts
- Flavio Bolsonaro and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are virtually tied in a Datafolha poll released Thursday.
- Bolsonaro would receive 47% of the vote compared to 46% for Lula.
- A prior poll on October 8 showed Bolsonaro leading Lula 49% to 45%.
Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are virtually tied ahead of Sunday's presidential runoff election, according to a Datafolha poll released on Thursday, October 22, 2026. The poll indicated Bolsonaro would receive 47% of the vote compared to 46% for Lula. A previous Datafolha poll on October 8 showed Bolsonaro leading Lula 49% to 45%. The margin of error for the polls is plus-minus 2 percentage points, meaning the race is considered a technical tie. The first-round vote on Sunday saw the younger Bolsonaro surprisingly lead Lula.