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Equity VAR at top US banks hits highest level since 2020

Created at 27 Aug · 3:41 AM1 source↑ Market-relevant
IN SHORT

The quarterly average regulatory equity value-at-risk across eight major US banks reached $669.9 million in Q2 2026, the highest since Q4 2020. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan led the surge, while Citi showed an unusual negative reading.

Key Numbers

$669.9 millionQ2 2026 average equity VAR for eight US G-Sibs
$692 millionQ4 2020 average equity VAR for eight US G-Sibs

Who's Involved

Goldman Sachs
US global systemically important bank with increased equity VAR
Morgan Stanley
US global systemically important bank with increased equity VAR
JP Morgan
US global systemically important bank with increased equity VAR
Citigroup
US global systemically important bank reporting unusual negative equity VAR

↳ Why This Matters

Rising equity value-at-risk suggests that the largest US banks are taking on more risk in their trading portfolios, potentially indicating increased market volatility or a shift in risk appetite. This could have implications for financial stability and regulatory capital requirements.

Key facts

  • The combined quarterly average regulatory equity value-at-risk for eight US global systemically important banks (G-Sibs) was $669.9 million in the second quarter of 2026.
  • This marks the highest level recorded since the fourth quarter of 2020, when the figure stood at $692 million.
  • Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan were among the banks that experienced a surge in their equity value-at-risk.
  • Citigroup was an outlier, reporting an unusual negative reading for its value-at-risk.
  • The aggregate regulatory equity value-at-risk (VAR) across the eight largest US global systemically important banks (G-Sibs) climbed to $669.9 million on a quarterly average basis in the second quarter of 2026. This represents the highest level observed since the fourth quarter of 2020, when the combined VAR was $692 million. The figures provided do not include the multiplier used to determine capital requirements based on VAR. Among the leading institutions, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan were noted for experiencing a significant increase in their equity VAR. In contrast, Citigroup bucked this trend by reporting an unusual negative reading.

    Frequently asked questions

    Equity value-at-risk (VAR) is a statistical measure used to quantify the potential loss in value of an investment portfolio due to market movements over a specific time horizon and at a given confidence level. It estimates the maximum expected loss under normal market conditions.

    A negative VAR reading is unusual as it typically implies a potential gain rather than a loss, which contradicts the purpose of VAR as a risk management tool designed to estimate downside risk. It may indicate specific hedging strategies or data anomalies.

    The eight US global systemically important banks (G-Sibs) typically include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon, and State Street.
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    How It Developed

    Average regulatory equity value-at-risk for eight US global systemically important banks (G-Sibs) reached $669.9 million in Q2 2026.
    This figure represents the highest level since Q4 2020, when it was $692 million.
    Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan saw significant increases in their VAR.
    Citigroup reported an unusual negative reading for its VAR.

    Sources

    T1
    Equity VAR at top US banks hits highest level since 2020Risk.net

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