Key facts
- English councils predict special educational needs and disability (Send) debts will reach £10 billion by April 2028.
- A recent government initiative cleared over £5 billion in historic council Send debts.
- The number of young people with education, health, and care plans (EHCPs) reached 718,000 in January, a 12.5% increase in the past year.
- Many councils anticipate annual double-digit increases in Send costs over the next three years.
- Hampshire county council forecasts a £200 million deficit for the current year.
- The government plans to reform Send provision to promote inclusivity in mainstream schools.
English councils are warning of potentially catastrophic debts, projected to reach a record £10 billion by April 2028, due to a surge in demand for special educational needs and disability (Send) support. Despite the government recently clearing over £5 billion in historic council Send debts, a rapid increase in requests for education, health, and care plans (EHCPs) is leading authorities to predict they will have re-accrued that debt figure by April and doubled it by 2028.
The acceleration in EHCP applications, which mandate support for conditions like speech and learning difficulties, autism, or ADHD, is partly attributed to parents and schools rushing to secure support before government reforms to Send provision take effect. This strain on council finances mirrors concerns in the NHS and benefit systems regarding the rising prevalence of mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions.
The Fonagy report, commissioned by the government, confirmed the real increase in these conditions and the resulting demand for support, stating it would be unsustainable without new management strategies. The County Councils Network (CCN) stated that the overspending is not due to reckless council spending but to meeting rapidly growing statutory demand without adequate funding increases. They urged ministers to guarantee future Send debts to prevent some councils from becoming effectively bankrupt.
Linden Kemkaran, the CCN's Send spokesperson, emphasized that if councils are left with billions in Send debt, taxpayers and local communities will ultimately bear the consequences through cuts to frontline services. She also noted that children and young people face longer waits for support, and educational outcomes may stagnate. Kemkaran called for ministers to deliver reforms to improve the system for young people, schools, and councils.
The government's reforms aim to replace the current EHCP system with a more inclusive approach in mainstream schools. However, parents are reportedly rushing to secure formal support now. Without a ministerial guarantee to cover future overspending, councils fear bankruptcy when the current "override" arrangement for keeping these debts off balance sheets expires in April 2028. Ministers have agreed to cover 90% of debts accumulated to March 2026, but future support is described as "appropriate and proportionate" but "not unlimited."
The CCN considers anything less than a commitment to pay down 90% of future Send debt a "financial catastrophe" for councils, with some struggling with solvency even if they retain only 10% of their debts. Internal reports from local authorities indicate significant projected overspends, with Hampshire county council forecasting a £200 million deficit for the current year. Other councils facing similar pressures include Surrey, East Sussex, Kent, Worcestershire, and Norfolk.
EHCPs are legal documents detailing support for children and young people up to age 25. In January, the number of EHCPs reached 718,000, a 12.5% increase over the past year, the largest annual rise since 2014. An additional 1.3 million young people have identified special needs. Many councils anticipate continued double-digit annual increases, projecting that nearly 10% of pupils could have an EHCP by 2029 at current rates. The Fonagy report noted that the growth in EHCPs has outpaced the education system's capacity, with 94% of statutory assessments in 2024 resulting in an EHCP award.
Owen Mapley, chief executive of the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy, stated that the escalating Send deficits reveal a failure to align statutory responsibilities with funding levels, a disconnect local government chief financial officers have long highlighted. A government spokesperson acknowledged inheriting a strained Send system and the continued rise in deficits and EHCP applications before reforms are fully implemented. The government is investing billions in early access to specialists and local reform plans, and will set out further details on deficit support before March 2028.