Key facts
- The ECB will remain proactive in its fight against high inflation.
- Inflation is expected to exceed the ECB's 2% target for a year.
- Oil prices remain above pre-war levels despite a recent fall.
- The ECB raised interest rates last week and left the door open to more tightening.
- Lane cited resilience in the euro zone economy, including construction recovery and fiscal spending.
European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane stated on Tuesday that the bank will continue to be "proactive" in its fight against high inflation, even after an interim agreement between the United States and Iran brought down energy prices. Lane noted that oil prices remain above pre-war levels and that the ECB will keep up its fight against inflation, which is now expected to be above its 2% target for a year.
Speaking at the Reuters NEXT Europe conference in London, Lane said that financial investors are betting that Brent oil prices will remain above $70 a barrel for years to come, hovering between the ECB's baseline and milder scenario but closer to the former. The ECB's baseline scenario projects inflation at 3.0% this year, 2.3% next year, and 2.0% in 2028.
Lane also highlighted factors that would offset the energy shock on the euro zone economy, citing a recovery in construction, growing real earnings, and increased fiscal spending in Germany as signs of resilience.