Key facts
- Long-term Bitcoin holders realized $2.4 billion in losses over 48 hours ending June 5, 2026.
- The spot price breached the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP), a key support level.
- The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) fell below 1.0, indicating sales at a loss.
- Approximately 26% of recent Bitcoin sales came from holders who bought above $90,000.
- The market has seen a 30-35% decline from peak levels.
- The MVRV Z-Score is near -1.5 standard deviations, around the $62,000–$65,000 support zone.
The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a significant downturn, described as a 'fire sale,' with long-term Bitcoin holders realizing approximately $2.4 billion in aggregate losses over a 48-hour period ending June 5, 2026. This occurred as the spot price breached the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP), a critical support level in bull markets. The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) falling below 1.0 indicates that coins held for over 155 days are being sold at a loss, a rare event historically preceding major market lows. Data suggests about 26% of recent Bitcoin sales came from holders who purchased above $90,000. The market sentiment is extremely negative, with the Fear and Greed Index at 12/100, comparable to the COVID-19 crash and the FTX collapse. Bitcoin's price has fallen from recent highs near $69,000 to $62,000, and the STH-RP metric indicates short-term holders are capitulating. Secondary on-chain metrics, such as the MVRV Z-Score, are near levels that have previously marked accumulation areas, but do not yet confirm an exhaustion of selling pressure. Confirmation of a sustainable bottom would require decreased long-term holder outflows, sustained closure above the STH-RP, and stabilization in the supply-in-loss percentage. Crypto market expert Aralez announced on June 2 that Bitcoin had broken a critical four-month support level, losing more than 8% in a single day and falling below $69,000. Aralez noted that the CME gap in the $74,000–$81,000 range was filled earlier in May. Bitcoin had been trading within an ascending channel, but the latest crash saw it break below the lower boundary near $70,000. Since crossing $80,000, Bitcoin entered a downtrend, crashing below $63,000 after losing the $70,000 support. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading just above $62,000, down over 15% in the last seven days. Aralez predicts a brief bounce to $71,000-$72,000, followed by a decline to $65,000-$63,000, and a potential bottom near $55,000, cautioning against mistaking this for a new bull run. Bitcoin has now reached its 200-week moving average, a level that has historically acted as major support during bear markets. In both 2015 and 2018, this area marked the final capitulation zone before a long-term recovery began. However, the level has not always held cleanly, as seen in 2022 when Bitcoin briefly traded below it before finding its cycle low. The current move has drawn comparisons with the 2022 bear market structure, with the breakdown also occurring in June. Deribit CCO Jean-David Péquignot highlighted that over $1.2 billion in notional open interest sits at the $60,000 put strike on Deribit options, suggesting that a break below this level could force market makers to adjust hedges, potentially leading to further selling pressure due to short gamma exposure.