Key facts
- Comac is forecast to hold 5% of the global passenger aircraft fleet by 2045.
- Airbus is projected to lead with 47% of the fleet allocation, followed by Boeing at 39%.
- Embraer is expected to hold 3% and ATR 2% of the market.
- The C919 aircraft targets the 150- to 180-seat market, comparable to the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX 8.
- The first C919 entered service in 2023 with China Eastern.
- As of now, 28 C919 aircraft have been delivered to four Chinese operators.
China's Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (Comac) is projected to capture 5% of the global passenger aircraft fleet by 2045, driven by strong demand for narrowbody jets and a robust domestic order book, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium. The firm forecasts that Airbus will lead the market with 47% of fleet allocation, followed by Boeing at 39%, with Embraer at 3% and ATR at 2%.
The C919, Comac's single-aisle aircraft, is designed to compete with established models like the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX 8. While its current industrial output is modest, with 28 aircraft delivered to four Chinese operators and 49 expected by the end of 2026, deliveries have recently accelerated. Comac has also unveiled concept variants of the C919, including a shortened version for around 130 seats and a stretched version for up to 210 seats, mirroring the product strategy of the 737 MAX family.
Despite ambitions for international exports, the C919's prospects outside China remain limited due to the strong market presence of Airbus and Boeing, their mature products, and extensive global maintenance networks. The C919's development relies on Western technology, including CFM LEAP-1C engines, a joint venture between GE and Safran, which Comac identifies as a program vulnerability. The company aims to foster technology transfer by selecting international suppliers who collaborate with domestic Chinese companies.
Comac reported 1,016 orders and options for the C919 in September 2023, though the firm status of many orders is uncorroborated. Most commitments originate from Chinese entities, many of which are financial institutions rather than airlines, potentially serving to organize the aircraft's diffusion within China's aviation ecosystem and support production ramp-up under Beijing's oversight.