Key facts
- The release of the CLARITY Act's new text has been postponed to next week.
- Polymarket traders now give the Clarity Act a 32% chance of passing by year-end 2026, its lowest level since January.
- Democratic concerns over ethics provisions and consumer protections are a major obstacle to the bill's passage.
- Senator Ruben Gallego stated he will not support the legislation without a bipartisan ethics provision.
- Industry executives argue that clear SEC and CFTC jurisdiction would reduce regulatory uncertainty.
The release of the updated text for the CLARITY Act has been postponed to next week, following ongoing negotiations and a meeting between President Donald Trump and Senate Republicans. This delay has led prediction markets, such as Polymarket, to lower the odds of the legislation passing in 2026 to 32%, reflecting growing skepticism about Congress's ability to assemble the necessary bipartisan support.
Key obstacles include Democratic concerns over ethics provisions related to public officials and digital assets, with Senator Ruben Gallego stating he will not support the bill without a bipartisan ethics clause. Despite these challenges, industry executives are urging Congress to pass the legislation, arguing that clear SEC and CFTC jurisdiction would reduce regulatory uncertainty and encourage crypto activity to remain within the U.S.
The House Financial Services Committee is scheduled to hold an informational hearing on the CLARITY Act's potential to foster digital asset innovation. However, with Congress approaching its August recess, traders appear increasingly doubtful the bill will reach the president's desk before the end of the year.