Key facts
- The CLARITY Act faces a potential Senate vote next week, with lawmakers merging committee versions.
- Ethics provisions are a significant obstacle to securing Democratic support for the bill.
- Odds of the Clarity Act passing by year-end have fallen to a record low of 32% on Polymarket.
- Industry executives argue that clear regulatory frameworks are needed to reduce uncertainty and encourage investment.
- President Donald Trump was expected to discuss the bill, particularly ethics provisions, with Senate Republicans.
The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year have fallen to their lowest level on crypto prediction market Polymarket, with traders giving the bill a 32% chance of passing by December 31, 2026. This reflects growing skepticism that Congress will pass the legislation before the end of the year, despite ongoing negotiations. A key sticking point remains the lack of a bipartisan ethics provision, which Senator Ruben Gallego and other Democrats have stated is necessary for their support. President Donald Trump was expected to meet with Senate Republicans to discuss the bill, particularly these ethics concerns. Industry executives, including representatives from Nova Labs, Bullish, WisdomTree, and Coin Center, have reiterated the importance of clear regulatory frameworks from the SEC and CFTC to reduce uncertainty and encourage investment in digital asset markets. With Congress approaching its August recess, the window for passing the legislation is narrowing, leading to increased doubt among traders.