Key facts
- China's current account surplus for the first half of 2026 was $378 billion.
- AI hardware supply chain growth was cited as a primary driver of global trade.
- China's Q2 2026 current account surplus was $193.7 billion.
- The Q2 2026 goods and services surplus widened to $223.4 billion.
- Doubts persist regarding the scale and methodology of China's reported current account surplus.
China reported a current account surplus of $378 billion for the first half of 2026, according to its foreign exchange regulator. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) highlighted artificial intelligence as a key driver of global trade growth, influencing the strong export performance that contributed to the surplus.
However, analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations suggests ongoing questions about the accuracy and methodology of China's balance of payments data. While China's customs surplus increased in the second quarter of 2025, its current account surplus dipped for reasons that remain unexplained, diverging from the customs data. This gap between customs and balance of payments figures has been inconsistent since 2021.
More recent data for the second quarter of 2026 shows a current account surplus of $193.7 billion, revised down slightly from an initial estimate. This figure is up from $184.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026. The surplus in goods and services widened to $223.4 billion in Q2 2026, up from $187.9 billion in Q1 2026. This widening was supported by higher prices for Chinese exports, while domestic demand remained subdued, leading manufacturers to focus on overseas clients. Despite a surge in oil prices due to the conflict in Iran, China largely halted energy imports and drew on existing inventories.