Key facts
- China's outward investment is projected to average over $500 billion annually through 2025.
- China's overseas assets approached $12 trillion at the end of last year, a 33% increase from 2020.
- China's goods trade surplus reached about $1.2 trillion in 2025.
- Goldman Sachs projects China's current account surplus could rise to around 4.3% of GDP in 2026.
- Premier Li Qiang stated China would expand market access in the services sector and increase imports of high-value goods.
China is defending its significant current-account surplus, asserting that its export strength generates funds that are reinvested globally, thereby supporting international industries and financial markets. Li Bin, deputy head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, stated on Thursday that China's outbound investments have averaged over $500 billion annually for the five years leading up to 2025. At the close of last year, the nation's overseas assets neared $12 trillion, marking a 33% increase since 2020.
Central bank governor Pan Gongsheng, speaking at the China Development Forum in Beijing, argued that the surplus is redistributed globally through investments by Chinese companies and financial institutions, contributing to global liquidity. This defense comes as China's exports have seen a sharp acceleration in early 2026, fueled by robust demand for electric vehicles, batteries, machinery, and other manufactured goods. However, some economists suggest that short-term factors, such as pre-ordered shipments and base effects, contribute to this increase.
China's goods trade surplus reached a record approximately $1.2 trillion in 2025. Goldman Sachs forecasts that the country's current account surplus could expand to about 4.3% of its GDP in 2026, indicating continued external strength. Independent analysts, however, point to structural issues like industrial overcapacity in sectors such as electric vehicles, solar panels, and steel, where production outstrips global demand, leading to increased export reliance. Concurrently, domestic consumption remains comparatively weak, with slower household spending and cautious business investment limiting internal demand and exacerbating the trade imbalance.
The surge in Chinese exports has heightened tensions with major trading partners, including the United States and the European Union, who have voiced concerns about the impact of low-cost imports on their domestic industries. European regulators are increasing scrutiny of Chinese EV imports, while the U.S. maintains existing tariffs and trade restrictions. Policymakers warn that persistent imbalances could lead to a broader adoption of protectionist measures.
In response, Premier Li Qiang announced that China intends to broaden market access in its services sector and boost imports of high-value products, such as medical supplies. China also emphasizes its substantial services trade deficit, encompassing spending on tourism, education, and intellectual property, as a counterweight to its goods surplus. The future trajectory of China's trade position in 2026 hinges on whether policy shifts can rebalance growth towards domestic demand; otherwise, continued export expansion risks intensifying global tensions and trade restrictions.