Key facts
- UK exporters continue to face significant barriers to trade with the EU ten years after the Brexit vote.
- Cheesemaker Michael Harte's company, Bridge Cheese, has pivoted to Asian markets after abandoning EU exports due to new costs and red tape.
- UK food exports to the EU have fallen significantly, with many small firms ceasing to export to the bloc.
- Economic forecasts suggest Brexit will result in a smaller UK economy and reduced investment compared to remaining in the EU.
- Northern Ireland has experienced stronger economic growth than the rest of the UK due to its continued access to the EU single market.
Ten years after the United Kingdom's vote to leave the European Union, many British businesses, particularly exporters, continue to grapple with the economic consequences of Brexit. Michael Harte, owner of Bridge Cheese, a company based in Telford, England, found that the new trade barriers imposed after Brexit made exporting to the EU prohibitively costly and complex. His company, which previously exported 100,000 tons of cheese annually to Europe, had to abandon these plans and spent four years finding new markets, eventually focusing on Asia, with Hong Kong becoming a significant destination.
Harte noted that the costs associated with veterinary checks, customs paperwork, and border delays made his products uncompetitive in the EU. He stated that the cost for a container of cheese to Asia is now comparable to that of just two small pallets to the EU, with less paperwork involved. This pivot to Asia is showing promise, with Bridge Cheese expecting to double its processed cheese exports to Hong Kong this year and seeking approvals in other Asian markets.
Bridge Cheese's experience is not unique. The Food and Drink Federation reported that UK food exports to the EU plummeted by over 23% between 2021 and 2025 compared to the preceding five years. A report by the London School of Economics indicated that around 20,000 small firms had stopped exporting to the EU by 2024. While new trade deals with countries like Australia and India are being pursued, they are not expected to replace the lost trade volume with the EU.
Economists and government forecasters predict significant long-term damage to the UK economy due to Brexit. The UK's budget forecasters estimate the economy will be 4% smaller 15 years after Brexit, equating to 120 billion pounds. The National Bureau of Economic Research suggests even greater damage, predicting a 6% to 8% reduction in the economy's size and an 18% drop in investment. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey acknowledged that making an economy less open restricts growth, though he noted that trade will eventually adjust and rebuild.
However, some economists who supported Brexit challenge these negative assessments, attributing the UK's economic struggles to factors like higher taxes, increased regulation, and energy costs rather than Brexit itself. They point to the UK's economic performance being broadly in line with France and better than Germany's in recent years, advocating for more bilateral trade deals, particularly for the services sector.
Northern Ireland, by contrast, has seen stronger economic performance due to its unique arrangement that maintains free access to the EU single market. Its economy grew by 16.5% between 2015 and 2023, outperforming England's 11.6% growth. Over a quarter of Northern Ireland's exports now go to the Republic of Ireland.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government is seeking to ease trade friction with the EU, with a summit planned for July 22 to discuss reducing veterinary checks. Harte expressed willingness to resume EU exports if conditions improve competitiveness and Britain aligns with EU trade rules. Nevertheless, many businesses remain cautious due to years of uncertainty and other economic shocks.