Key facts
- Flavio Bolsonaro leads Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva 47% to 45% in a Datafolha poll.
- The poll shows a narrowing gap between the two candidates ahead of the October 25 runoff.
- The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points, indicating a technical tie.
- In valid votes, Bolsonaro leads Lula 51% to 49%.
Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro continues to hold a slight lead over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of the October 25 election runoff, according to a Datafolha poll released on Thursday, October 15, 2026. Bolsonaro garnered 47% of the vote compared to Lula's 45%, a narrowing of the gap from the previous week when Bolsonaro led 49% to 45%. The poll surveyed 2,520 people between October 13-14. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points, indicating a technical tie. Additionally, 6% of respondents indicated they would cast a blank vote, and 2% were undecided. In terms of valid votes, excluding blank and undecided ballots, Bolsonaro leads Lula 51% to 49%.