Key facts
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) regularly revises its employment estimates.
- Preliminary job gain estimates for May and June were substantially reduced.
- The 2026 revisions indicate a downward adjustment of 0.1% of the total workforce.
- Economists attribute slower hiring to business uncertainty related to tariff policy.
- Declining response rates for BLS payroll surveys pose challenges to data accuracy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) regularly releases employment data, with the monthly Employment Situation report being a key indicator of U.S. economic health. While preliminary estimates of job gains or losses are widely covered, the subsequent revisions are less frequently reported. Recent revisions for May and June showed significantly lower job gains than initially reported, with the May estimate falling 86% from preliminary to final. The July preliminary estimate indicated 73,000 jobs gained, but the 2026 revisions suggest a more modest downward adjustment of 0.1% of the total workforce, implying job growth is not as robust as initially presented.
These revisions are a normal part of the BLS process, designed to incorporate more complete data from voluntary payroll surveys of businesses. However, declining response rates for these surveys, falling below 50% since May 2021, present challenges to data accuracy. Despite these challenges, the average revision since 2023 has been a reduction of 32,000 jobs. The BLS uses confidence intervals to indicate the uncertainty in preliminary estimates; for July's 73,000 jobs gained, the 90% confidence interval was +/-136,000, suggesting the true number could range from 63,000 jobs lost to 209,000 jobs gained.
Economists have linked slower hiring to business uncertainty stemming from tariff policies. Following the release of the July jobs report, President Donald Trump claimed the numbers were 'rigged' and fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer, though he provided no evidence for his claim.