Key facts
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan now views the failure of the CLARITY Act as a "speed bump, not a roadblock" for the crypto bull market.
- Hougan previously warned in January that the act's failure could stall the 2026 crypto bull run.
- Bitcoin rallied from $57,950 on July 1 to over $80,000 on September 4, while odds of the CLARITY Act passing in 2026 fell from 39% to 18%.
- The CFTC has cleared passive software developers to build trading tools without broker registration.
- The SEC and CFTC are seeking public comment on a harmonized framework for BTC, ETH, and XRP futures.
- The SEC is preparing a framework for 24/7 trading of tokenized US stocks.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has revised his outlook on the CLARITY Act's legislative failure, now characterizing it as a "speed bump, not a roadblock" for the cryptocurrency market's bull run. This marks a shift from his January warning that a failure could stall the 2026 crypto bull market.
Hougan's revised stance, detailed in a September 16 client memo following the Senate's cloture vote miss, hinges on a divergence between asset prices and legislative odds. He points to Bitcoin's rally from a July 1 low of $57,950 to a September 4 peak above $80,000, occurring while the probability of the CLARITY Act's passage in 2026 fell from 39% to 18% on Polymarket. This price action, Hougan argues, suggests the market does not require the act to continue its upward trajectory.
Instead, Hougan emphasizes the role of Wall Street's own initiatives and regulatory agency rulemaking. He cites Robinhood's launch of its blockchain, Morgan Stanley's rollout of a Solana ETF, and DTCC's settlement of tokenized stock trades as evidence of institutional progress independent of legislative action. Furthermore, he highlights statements from SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Mike Selig, who have indicated their agencies are prepared to develop rules for the digital asset space. Hougan suggests these agency-driven rules could be more favorable to crypto than the CLARITY Act, as they bypass the need for broad political consensus on contentious clauses.
The CFTC has already taken steps, clearing passive software developers to build trading tools without broker registration. Both the SEC and CFTC are also seeking public comment on a unified framework for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP futures, and the SEC is developing rules for 24/7 trading of tokenized US stocks. While Hougan acknowledges that agency rules can be reversed by future administrations, he has deprioritized this "durability problem" in favor of immediate regulatory clarity. He notes that market headwinds such as Bitcoin's post-vote drop, liquidations, and macro factors related to interest rates and oil prices remain "speed bumps," but the ultimate destination for the market is unchanged. The focus for traders should now be on SEC and CFTC rulemaking proposals rather than legislative counts.