Key facts
- Bitcoin benefits across nearly every macro scenario, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan.
- Hougan cited "superabundance" from AI as a tailwind for scarce assets like Bitcoin.
- A government bailout and money-printing following an AI bubble burst would also favor Bitcoin.
- Risks include Bitcoin's historical volatility, potential government crackdowns, and quantum computing threats.
- Hougan concluded that macro outcomes are less important than perceived for long-term Bitcoin investors.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan presented a bullish case for Bitcoin, suggesting it stands to gain regardless of the ultimate outcome of the artificial intelligence revolution. In an investor note published Wednesday, Hougan likened Bitcoin's position to a "Choose Your Own Adventure" book, where different paths lead to the same favorable conclusion for the cryptocurrency.
Hougan outlined two primary scenarios: one where AI drives "superabundance," increasing productivity and devaluing intelligence-based work, which he believes would funnel value into scarce assets like Bitcoin. The alternative scenario involves the bursting of an AI bubble, potentially triggering a recession. However, Hougan anticipates a significant government bailout and extensive money-printing in such an event, conditions he argues Bitcoin was designed to thrive in.