Key facts
- Bitcoin traded at $83,000, down 3.2% for the week.
- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 56 from 67.
- Solana and Ethereum declined 11% and 8% respectively over the past seven days.
- Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows of $451 million in October.
- Ether ETFs have experienced net outflows of $720 million in October.
- Brent crude oil traded near $110, up from over $101 last week.
- The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.70%, a level not seen since 2002.
- Blur's front end will be deprecated on November 12, leading to the project's shutdown.
- Ledger linked an $87 million wallet drain to unauthorized hardware implants in devices from a specific distributor.
Bitcoin experienced a significant downturn, trading at $83,000 and down 3.2% for the week, as the anticipated 'Uptober' rally failed to materialize. The cryptocurrency had topped out near $87,000 early last week before sliding to $81,000 on Monday, a roughly 7% drawdown, before a modest bounce. This price action led to a drop in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to 56 from 67 a week prior, moving away from its August peak of 82.
Altcoins fared worse, with Solana down 11%, HYPE down 12%, Dogecoin down 12%, XRP down 10%, and Ethereum down 8% over the last seven days. Prediction markets also cooled, with the odds of Bitcoin hitting $87,500 in October falling from 55% to 45%, while a dip to $80,000 is now priced at 56%.
The prevailing view attributes the decline to macroeconomic factors. Brent crude oil surpassed $101 last week and was trading near $110, influenced by ship attacks around the Strait of Hormuz. Concurrently, the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70%, its highest level since 2002, before settling around 5.60%, with the 10-year yield at 5.24%.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $680 million last week and an additional $65 million on Monday, resulting in net outflows of $451 million for October. Ether ETFs have experienced even deeper outflows, with $720 million in net outflows for the month.
Analysts are divided on the implications. Daniela Hathorn of Capital.com suggested investors are treating Bitcoin as a risk asset rather than a geopolitical hedge. Conversely, James Butterfill of CoinShares argued that rising yields driven by fears of U.S. debt rather than strong growth could make Bitcoin appear less like a risk asset and more like an alternative to government money.
The next significant catalyst for the market will be the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data due this Wednesday. A cooler-than-expected print could lower yields and provide support for risk assets, while a hotter print, combined with elevated oil prices, could reignite rate-hike discussions.